Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
